01
Name the decision and the point of no return
Write the decision as a concrete trade-off: what to do, why now, which options exist, and what becomes hard to undo.
Startup guide
How to stress-test a startup decision before committing runway
A strong startup decision is not just about getting an answer. It clarifies the bet, critical assumptions, missing evidence, and the conditions that should change your mind before runway starts burning.
5-step method
02
Name the assumptions carrying the bet
Ask what must be true for the decision to work: customer demand, team capacity, sales cycle, margin, market timing, or funding.
03
Run a failure simulation before execution
Imagine the decision failed 90 days from now. Identify the quiet failure, late signal, team risk, and bad incentive.
04
Define evidence, thresholds, and kill-switches
Set the signals that confirm or invalidate the bet: minimum metric, review date, maximum cost, customer proof, or stop condition.
05
Choose Quick analysis or deep analysis
Use Quick analysis to frame a current decision quickly. Use deep analysis when the choice commits runway, team, budget, or credibility.
Get
Visible critical assumptions
Check
Missing evidence and thresholds
Keep
Expected vs. actual review point